Quick answer

Change fails when a person, or a team, is treated as one decision-maker. We’re each a “self-collective”: a nest of habits, identities and competing needs. Wayshaping is the theory that treating people this way, rather than as a nest of competing needs, is the real problem, not a lack of motivation, and it reframes leading change as realigning that collective (James, Jamaluddin, Froese, Belhadi, Panagiotou and Snowden).

Four moves keep change from stalling:

  • Wayfind: When the plan no longer fits the context, adjust the route rather than forcing the original one.
  • Surface the conflict: When needs are pulling against each other, name the competing demand instead of pushing harder.
  • Build the reminder in: When today’s intention can’t reach tomorrow’s moment of choice, use scaffolds and environmental cues to do the reminding.
  • Match the support to the moment: Use steady scaffolds for fragile patterns, sharper shocks for entrenched ones.

The key shift: Don’t try to make people want it more. Diagnose which coordination problem is in the way, and build the structure that resolves it.

Please note: Wayshaping is a working hypothesis from an active research programme, not an established, validated technique. Its own authors are explicit that empirical testing of these mechanisms is still ahead of them. This is my summary of the ideas and I am no way related to the work or authors. I am just trying to make sense of this as a facilitator and coach and sharing my understanding. Article written by Andi Roberts with scaffolding support from AI. Image is drawn by the author.

The gap between what people intend to do and what they actually do is not just a leadership frustration. It is one of the most consistently measured findings in behavioural psychology. Paschal Sheeran’s meta-analysis of ten prior meta-analyses, covering 422 studies and over 82,000 participants, found that intentions account for only 28% of the variance in whether people go on to act. A room can align fully behind a strategy, genuine buy-in included, and the new behaviour still evaporates within weeks. The usual explanations (resistance, lack of accountability, weak follow-through) treat this as a motivation problem: push harder, remind more often, tie it to a KPI. The research suggests that this style of diagnosis is largely wrong.

That’s because most models of change assume a person (or a team) is a single agent: Form the intention, then either execute it or fail to, with failure explained by insufficient willpower or inadequate incentives. If that model were right, more reminders and better incentive design would have solved this by now. Unfortunately they haven’t, because the model is missing the actual architecture of the people you’re trying to help change.

A 2025 interdisciplinary paper, spanning the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, the Center for Conscious Leadership and Dave Snowden’s Cynefin Co, offers a different account, called Wayshaping. Its starting premise is strange but useful for anyone leading change: a person is not one thing. A person is a collective. Leading change well means learning to work with that collective, not around it.

The person you’re trying to help change is not one decision-maker

Wayshaping draws on embodied cognitive science showing that biological agents are themselves made of parts that act like agents. A cell coordinates with other cells to form tissue, and the tissue, once formed, constrains what the cells can do next. The same nested structure runs all the way up: cells to organs, organs to the organism, habits to identities, identities to social roles.

The framework calls this the self-collective: a person understood as a network of adaptive agents operating across four levels (biological, psychological, social, existential) and multiple scales of time, from momentary habits to enduring identities. Each level cares about something different (biological: energy and safety; social: belonging and status; existential: integrity and meaning), and each speaks through its own sensorimotor, affective and linguistic patterns.

Here’s why this matters the moment you’re trying to lead someone else’s change. The person’s stated intention lives at one node of this network, usually the linguistic, existential level, the “yes, I’m committed to this”, while the behaviour you want changed is enacted by other nodes entirely, often the psychological or sensorimotor level, reinforced by years of entrainment. When someone says they’re committed and then doesn’t follow through, the gap you’re seeing isn’t a character flaw. It’s a coordination gap between levels of the same person, and your leadership task is to help close it, not to relitigate their sincerity.

This reframing changes what “supporting change” means. You’re not a cheerleader for someone’s willpower. You’re closer to a systems designer, helping identify which part of the system is actually blocking the behaviour and what structure would resolve it.

Why the change you’re supporting keeps stalling: three coordination challenges

Wayshaping breaks the intention-action gap into three interdependent coordination challenges. Each shows up differently when you’re the one leading or supporting the change, and each points to a different tool in the toolkit below.

1. Non-linearity: The plan you agreed on doesn’t match the context anymore

Complex systems don’t behave proportionally or predictably. A small shift in context can produce an outsized change in behaviour; the same intervention lands differently depending on when and where it’s tried; and combining two changes at once can interact in ways neither would alone. When you’re leading change, this shows up as the plan that made complete sense in the kick-off meeting quietly ceasing to fit reality by week three (workload has shifted, a key person has left, priorities have moved and so on), while everyone is still being held to the original plan as if nothing changed.

2. Alignment: The person or team is being pulled in genuinely different directions

This is often the real story behind “they know what to do, they’re just not doing it.” The self-collective’s regulatory demands can conflict: a team’s psychological-level need for stability may compete with a social-level need to look responsive, or an individual’s existential-level desire to do meaningful work may collide with a biological-level exhaustion that no motivational town-hall will resolve. When you push on the stated intention without addressing the competing demand underneath it, you get compliance in the room and reversion afterwards.

3. Anticipation: the moment of decision won’t have access to today’s motivation

Even with genuine alignment, there’s a third problem. The person who agreed to the change in your meeting is coordinating with a future version of themselves who won’t have your meeting’s clarity, energy or social pressure available to them. Handing someone an instruction to “remember” is asking them to supply, unaided, the exact resource that’s least reliable in the moment.

The toolkit: eight tools for leading and supporting change

These are the tools worth knowing, in order to be able to reach for them by name when you’re actively helping someone else’s change effort: a direct report, a team, an organisation, or possibly yourself in the role as a change lead. Resist the urge to use them as a single-pass diagnostic funnel, rather, locate the one true problem, deploy the appropropriate supporting tool and wait for the result. When things are messier, run two or three small, different moves (probes?) at once (a scaffold here, a stigmergic trace there) and let what amplifies or fizzles tell you which coordination challenge you were actually dealing with. Each tool below is written as a menu of things to try, not a mandatory sequence.

Quick summary

Tool The question it answers What it looks like
1. The self-collective Why can someone genuinely want to change and still not change? Realising an exhausted team member needs rest, not another pep talk about the mission.
2. The relational change model Where is this change effort actually snagging, personal, interpersonal, or ecological? Finding a broken handoff or a slow tool is the real blocker, not a lack of motivation.
3. Wayfinding The plan no longer fits the context, what do I do? Keeping the destination fixed but re-plotting the route once workload or priorities shift.
4. Self-scaffolding How do I help someone (or myself) build support that still works once I’m not there? Coaching someone to diagnose and fix their own broken routine, rather than fixing it for them.
5. Scaffolds What kind of support does this fragile new behaviour need, and for how long? A pre-filled template with a review date set on day one, tapered gradually over several weeks.
6. Shocks This pattern is too entrenched for gentle support alone, what now? Anything from changing a meeting format on the spot, to a genuine reorganisation, sized to what’s actually needed.
7. Stigmergy How do I coordinate with a future version of someone who won’t have today’s motivation? Changing the actual intake form so the new process is the only path through it, no reminder required.
8. Rhythms and flows How does a new behaviour stick without relying on anyone remembering it? Attaching the new habit to a sprint boundary or standing meeting, rather than an arbitrary start date.

Use this as a reminder, not a substitute. Each tool has real depth, tips, warnings, and what to watch for, that this table can’t carry. Go back to the tool itself before acting on it.

The dynamics of change: how these forces move over time

Wayshaping is not a set of static boxes to file a problem into once and forget. It’s a living process. The value of the framework lies not in diagnosing a coordination challenge correctly on day one, but in noticing how challenges and tools interact and shift as the change effort unfolds. A pattern that started as a straightforward anticipation problem can curdle into an alignment problem three weeks later. A scaffold that was exactly right at launch can become the very thing preventing the pattern from ever becoming self-sustaining. Leadership here is the art of reading movement, not just taking a snapshot.

The cascade: how one coordination challenge quietly becomes another

The three coordination challenges rarely stay in their own lane. In practice, they cascade. A non-linearity problem, where the plan no longer fits a context that has moved on, left unaddressed, doesn’t just stay a planning problem. People start quietly working around a plan they’ve stopped believing in, while still nodding along in meetings. That’s no longer non-linearity; it’s now an alignment problem, because compliance in the room and behaviour on the ground have split into two different, competing demands (looking supportive versus doing what actually works).

An unresolved alignment problem, left to fester, becomes an anticipation problem: because nobody has been honest about the competing demand, no one designs a scaffold for it, so the moment of choice keeps arriving with no support at all, and the old behaviour wins by default every time.  This matters practically because the temptation, when a change effort is failing months in, is to treat whatever is visible right now as the whole problem. If what’s visible is “people aren’t remembering to do the new thing”, it’s tempting to reach straight for a stigmergic fix, changing a default or adding a template. But if that anticipation-shaped symptom is actually the third stage of a cascade that started as an unaddressed alignment problem, the structural fix will quietly fail too, because the underlying competing demand was never resolved.

The leadership skill is asking not just “what challenge am I looking at right now” but “how long has this been building, and what did it look like at the start.”

The scaffold cliff: When support quietly becomes a hidden dependency

The most dangerous transition in this framework is the one Cynefin calls a cliff rather than a slope, and Wayshaping has a direct equivalent. A scaffold that is working well feels, from the inside, exactly like a pattern that has become self-sustaining. That is precisely what makes over-scaffolding so easy to miss and so damaging when it’s finally exposed.

This risk only applies to scaffolds that were meant to be temporary. Some scaffolds are genuinely built to stay, a checklist, a shared tool, a role whose whole job is to catch what people miss, and leaving those in place isn’t a cliff forming, it’s the scaffold doing exactly what it was designed to do. The cliff is specifically what happens to a scaffold that should have been temporary but never got reviewed. If it’s never tapered (the daily check-in that becomes permanent by default rather than by design, the template that removes any need to understand the process it encodes, the manager who quietly does the coordinating the team should have learned to do itself), the team doesn’t just plateau. It becomes brittle. Nothing has actually been entrained underneath the support; the appearance of a stable new habit is really just the scaffold working continuously and invisibly. Then the scaffold is removed (the manager leaves, the tool is deprecated, budget cuts remove the standing meeting), and the pattern doesn’t degrade gracefully. It collapses, all at once, back to the original behaviour, often worse than before because the team never built the capability the scaffold was meant to develop.

The warning signs look almost identical to Cynefin’s signs of drift towards the Clear-to-Chaos cliff: nobody questions why the scaffold is still there, removing it “just for a week” generates disproportionate anxiety, and no one on the team could describe how to do the task without the support in place. The first, most useful question when you notice any of these signs is simply whether this scaffold was ever meant to come off in the first place, if it wasn’t, there’s no cliff to worry about. If it was, the corrective is the same discipline described in the scaffolds tool above, namely a review date set at installation and a genuine test of whether the behaviour survives a temporary reduction in support, but it’s worth naming as a distinct dynamic in its own right, because it’s usually invisible until the cliff edge arrives.

The shock, scaffold and rhythm cycle: How durable change actually consolidates

The healthiest movement in Wayshaping, like the healthiest movement in Cynefin, is circular rather than linear, and it doesn’t only apply to the rare, dramatic kind of shock. A shock, at any intensity, disrupts an entrenched, stable but unwanted pattern. A scaffold then protects the new, fragile alternative long enough for it to stabilise. As the pattern stabilises, it can be deliberately attached to an existing rhythm (a sprint boundary, a weekly ritual) so that it inherits that rhythm’s momentum and no longer needs active scaffolding to recur. At that point, the rhythm itself has effectively become the new baseline: the equivalent of a habit that has moved into Cynefin’s Clear domain, reliable and no longer requiring active attention.

This cycle runs constantly at the low-intensity end, a small, deliberate disruption to a stale meeting format, scaffolded for a few weeks with a new agenda template, eventually just becomes how the team runs meetings, with nobody thinking of it as a shock at all anymore. The same cycle also runs at the rare, high-intensity end, a genuine reorganisation, scaffolded carefully through the transition, eventually settling into the new normal. It’s the same three-step movement either way, just at different scales.

The shock that starts the cycle doesn’t always have to be one a leader deliberately creates, either. Sometimes it’s already happened, a bad quarter, an unexpected departure, a market shift, and the leadership task isn’t deciding whether to trigger a disruption, it’s recognising that one has already landed and moving straight to the scaffolding step before the moment passes.

This is good, but it is not the end of the story, because the same baseline that offers stability now can itself become brittle later, exactly as described above. Organisations that understand this cycle build in periodic review of even their well-established rhythms, not because something is wrong, but because every stable pattern is a candidate for the next scaffold cliff if the context around it moves and nobody notices. The leader’s job across the full cycle isn’t to pick shock, scaffold or rhythm once. It’s to recognise which stage of the cycle a given behaviour is currently in, and to know that today’s hard-won rhythm is next year’s candidate for renewed disruption.

Regression and recovery: What to do when a change effort collapses back

Every change effort eventually meets a moment where the new behaviour reverts: a busy quarter, a change in team composition, a crisis that consumes everyone’s attention. The instinct, especially for a leader who feels the pressure of having “lost ground”, is to respond with a bigger shock: a sterner mandate, a more dramatic relaunch, a public commitment designed to force compliance. This is usually the wrong move, for the same reason that a shock without scaffolding produces trauma rather than growth in the first instance: a system that has just regressed has, by definition, less capacity to absorb disruption than it did at the original launch, not more.

The more reliable sequence mirrors Cynefin’s account of recovering from chaos: stabilise first, at a smaller scale than before, before pushing for anything ambitious again. Reinstall a lighter scaffold at a size the team can actually sustain right now. Only once that smaller pattern is holding should you revisit whether the original alignment diagnosis was even correct. Regression is often the first honest signal that an alignment problem was present at launch and got missed, not evidence that people have simply lost their nerve.

The alignment pause

There is a specific moment in most change efforts that deserves its own name: the point where the signals are genuinely mixed, some parts of a team are complying, some aren’t, some seem committed in one context and not another, and it isn’t yet clear which of the three coordination challenges is actually driving what you’re seeing. The temptation here is to force a decision: pick a tool, apply it, see what happens. Wayshaping’s equivalent of Cynefin’s aporetic pause is to resist that temptation and run the relational change model deliberately before acting further, because applying a scaffold to what’s actually an alignment problem just produces a support structure people quietly resent and route around, and applying a shock to what’s actually an anticipation problem produces disruption with no capacity-building underneath it. The pause costs a small amount of time. Guessing wrong costs the whole effort.

The stewardship challenge: managing the flow of stress over the life of the effort

Taken together, these dynamics point to a single underlying discipline: leading change well is not a matter of correctly picking one tool at the outset and executing it. It’s the continuous modulation of stress on the system over the full arc of the effort: enough scaffolding to protect a fragile pattern, but not so much that nothing is ever entrained; enough disruption, at whatever scale the moment calls for, to move an entrenched pattern, but never without support; enough rhythm to make a gain durable, without mistaking durability for permanence. The leader’s real skill is not knowing which domain they started in, but sensing where the effort is now, in its own life cycle, and adjusting the flow of stress accordingly.

Leading accordingly, for yourself and for others

A team is a self-collective that is, a nested network with its own levels and its own competing demands, and you’re part of that system as well, not just observing it from outside. Leading change well means holding a few principles about how these tools combine, whether you’re applying them to a team or to your own follow-through.

Probe before you commit to one story: Resist naming the one correct coordination challenge before you’ve tried anything. Run two or three small, different moves at once where you can, a scaffold here, a stigmergic trace there, and let what amplifies or fizzles tell you what you were actually dealing with. The most common leadership error isn’t picking the wrong tool, it’s picking one tool from a single upfront diagnosis and betting everything on it being correct.

Design change as scaffold-and-shock combinations, never one alone:  A reorganisation with no support structure is a shock with no scaffold, disorientation, not learning. A wellness programme that disrupts nothing is a scaffold with no shock, comfortable and largely inert. This applies at every intensity, not just the dramatic end.

Build environments, not just messages: You cannot hold every team member’s intention in their head for them, and you can’t rely on holding your own there either. Change what’s easy, defaults, templates, physical layout, the first five minutes of a meeting, for the people you’re supporting and for yourself.

Walk the three domains before assuming motivation is the problem: personal, interpersonal, ecological, whether you’re diagnosing someone else’s stalled effort or your own.

Look back before deciding what happened, rather than checking against a plan made in advance: Expect divergence, and treat it as information gathered along the way. Reviewing what actually occurred and adjusting is the practice itself, not a sign the practice failed.

Reflection questions

  1. What’s the one idea from this that I’m most likely to actually use, and what would using it look like this week?
  2. How does this compare with how I already tend to support change, what does it confirm I’m doing well, and what does it challenge?
  3. Where have I seen the intention-action gap play out in my own team recently, and would I have described it the same way before reading this?
  4. Is there a tool here that feels uncomfortable or counterintuitive to me specifically, and what might that discomfort be telling me?
  5. Who around me could I try one small part of this with, and what would tell me, honestly, whether it helped?

Sources:

Bickhard, M.H. (1992) ‘Scaffolding and self-scaffolding: central aspects of development’, in Winegar, L.T. and Valsiner, J. (eds.) Children’s development within social context: volume II: research and methodology. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, pp. 33–52.

Ingold, T. (2000) The perception of the environment: essays on livelihood, dwelling and skill. London: Routledge.

MAIN SOURCE: James, M.M., Jamaluddin, M., Froese, T., Belhadi, A., Panagiotou, A. and Snowden, D. (2025) ‘Wayshaping: a multiscale framework for behavior change’. PsyArXiv [Preprint]. Available at: https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tp9wr_v4 (Accessed: 22 August 2026).

Milkman, K. (2021) How to change: the science of getting from where you are to where you want to be. New York: Portfolio.

Sheeran, P. (2002) ‘Intention–behaviour relations: a conceptual and empirical review’, European Review of Social Psychology, 12(1), pp. 1–36. doi: 10.1080/14792772143000003.