Uncertainty is part of every leader’s working life, especially in complex organisations and change programmes. Explore how to make decisions without full information, lead teams through ambiguity and build the resilience to keep moving forward.

How can I make better decisions when facing uncertainty?

By |2026-11-06T18:32:38+00:00September 8, 2026|Categories: Complexity & Systems thinking, Leadership, Transformation|Tags: , |

Making good decisions is harder when the situation is uncertain, the evidence is incomplete and several explanations seem plausible. The danger for leaders is often not a lack of information, but settling too quickly on one interpretation of what is happening. Drawing on Dave Snowden’s work on trialectics, this article explores nine perspectives that can help leaders examine what they notice, where their knowledge comes from and how they reason about uncertainty. It then turns those ideas into practical questions for challenging your own thinking, making sense of situations with others and deciding when to apply what you know, look for patterns or act in order to learn. The aim is not to remove uncertainty, but to see more, assume less and make better decisions within it.

How do I lead through ambiguity and uncertainty in a matrix?

By |2026-11-06T18:32:19+00:00July 9, 2026|Categories: Leadership questions|Tags: , |

Quick answer To lead through ambiguity in a matrix organisation, don’t wait for perfect clarity before acting. First work out whether the challenge is complicated or genuinely complex, then create enough provisional direction for people to move while using action, feedback and sensemaking to learn what the situation requires. Six practices help: Diagnose the situation: distinguish problems that can be analysed [...]

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