Making good decisions is harder when the situation is uncertain, the evidence is incomplete and several explanations seem plausible. The danger for leaders is often not a lack of information, but settling too quickly on one interpretation of what is happening. Drawing on Dave Snowden’s work on trialectics, this article explores nine perspectives that can help leaders examine what they notice, where their knowledge comes from and how they reason about uncertainty. It then turns those ideas into practical questions for challenging your own thinking, making sense of situations with others and deciding when to apply what you know, look for patterns or act in order to learn. The aim is not to remove uncertainty, but to see more, assume less and make better decisions within it.

Estuarine mapping is Dave Snowden's evolving technique for working out what can actually change in a complex system, and what cannot, so that action starts from the present reality rather than an idealised future. It maps the people, constraints, habits and resources shaping a situation against the energy and time required to shift them, helping leaders identify where intervention is genuinely possible. Use it when a change effort keeps stalling against something nobody can quite name, when people disagree about what is really fixed, or when a strategy process has produced a vision nobody disputes and a route nobody can agree on.

The wayshaping framework treats behaviour change as a negotiation between the habits, identities and narratives that make up a person, not a single act of willpower. Drawing on embodied cognitive science and complexity theory, it reframes the intention-action gap as three coordination challenges and offers scaffolds and shocks as practical levers for working with them. Here's what it means in practice for leaders and change managers navigating change in themselves and in their organisations.